[--[65.84.65.76]--]

MIDCPNIFTY

Nifty Midcap Select
13581.7 -118.80 (-0.87%)
L: 13488.8 H: 13665.6
Max Pain - MIDCPNIFTY
06 Feb 2026 01:55 PM IST
Live
Max-Pain
13,500
DFC
7D Avg
Reliability
14D Avg
Reliability
21D Avg
Reliability
Max Pain for MIDCPNIFTY is 13500


Strike  11500  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  937,364,700,000 Combined total value = 937,364,700,000

Strike  11525  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  920,800,500,000 Combined total value = 920,800,500,000

Strike  11550  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  904,236,300,000 Combined total value = 904,236,300,000

Strike  11575  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  887,672,100,000 Combined total value = 887,672,100,000

Strike  11600  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  871,107,900,000 Combined total value = 871,107,900,000

Strike  11625  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  855,056,100,000 Combined total value = 855,056,100,000

Strike  11650  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  839,004,300,000 Combined total value = 839,004,300,000

Strike  11675  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  822,952,500,000 Combined total value = 822,952,500,000

Strike  11700  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  806,900,700,000 Combined total value = 806,900,700,000

Strike  11725  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  790,967,700,000 Combined total value = 790,967,700,000

Strike  11750  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  775,034,700,000 Combined total value = 775,034,700,000

Strike  11775  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  759,101,700,000 Combined total value = 759,101,700,000

Strike  11800  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  743,168,700,000 Combined total value = 743,168,700,000

Strike  11825  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  727,626,000,000 Combined total value = 727,626,000,000

Strike  11850  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  712,083,300,000 Combined total value = 712,083,300,000

Strike  11875  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  696,540,600,000 Combined total value = 696,540,600,000

Strike  11900  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  680,997,900,000 Combined total value = 680,997,900,000

Strike  11925  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  665,675,400,000 Combined total value = 665,675,400,000

Strike  11950  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  650,352,900,000 Combined total value = 650,352,900,000

Strike  11975  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  635,030,400,000 Combined total value = 635,030,400,000

Strike  12000  has a total call value of 0  versus a total put value of  619,707,900,000 Combined total value = 619,707,900,000

Strike  12025  has a total call value of 8,100,000  versus a total put value of  605,840,400,000 Combined total value = 605,848,500,000

Strike  12050  has a total call value of 16,200,000  versus a total put value of  591,972,900,000 Combined total value = 591,989,100,000

Strike  12075  has a total call value of 24,300,000  versus a total put value of  578,105,400,000 Combined total value = 578,129,700,000

Strike  12100  has a total call value of 32,400,000  versus a total put value of  564,237,900,000 Combined total value = 564,270,300,000

Strike  12125  has a total call value of 40,500,000  versus a total put value of  550,549,200,000 Combined total value = 550,589,700,000

Strike  12150  has a total call value of 48,600,000  versus a total put value of  536,860,500,000 Combined total value = 536,909,100,000

Strike  12175  has a total call value of 56,700,000  versus a total put value of  523,171,800,000 Combined total value = 523,228,500,000

Strike  12200  has a total call value of 64,800,000  versus a total put value of  509,483,100,000 Combined total value = 509,547,900,000

Strike  12225  has a total call value of 77,400,000  versus a total put value of  495,975,300,000 Combined total value = 496,052,700,000

Strike  12250  has a total call value of 90,000,000  versus a total put value of  482,467,500,000 Combined total value = 482,557,500,000

Strike  12275  has a total call value of 102,600,000  versus a total put value of  468,959,700,000 Combined total value = 469,062,300,000

Strike  12300  has a total call value of 115,200,000  versus a total put value of  455,461,200,000 Combined total value = 455,576,400,000

Strike  12325  has a total call value of 127,800,000  versus a total put value of  442,322,700,000 Combined total value = 442,450,500,000

Strike  12350  has a total call value of 140,400,000  versus a total put value of  429,187,500,000 Combined total value = 429,327,900,000

Strike  12375  has a total call value of 153,000,000  versus a total put value of  416,080,800,000 Combined total value = 416,233,800,000

Strike  12400  has a total call value of 165,600,000  versus a total put value of  402,977,400,000 Combined total value = 403,143,000,000

Strike  12425  has a total call value of 178,200,000  versus a total put value of  390,006,300,000 Combined total value = 390,184,500,000

Strike  12450  has a total call value of 190,800,000  versus a total put value of  377,037,600,000 Combined total value = 377,228,400,000

Strike  12475  has a total call value of 204,000,000  versus a total put value of  364,098,000,000 Combined total value = 364,302,000,000

Strike  12500  has a total call value of 217,200,000  versus a total put value of  351,161,700,000 Combined total value = 351,378,900,000

Strike  12525  has a total call value of 268,800,000  versus a total put value of  339,605,400,000 Combined total value = 339,874,200,000

Strike  12550  has a total call value of 320,400,000  versus a total put value of  328,054,200,000 Combined total value = 328,374,600,000

Strike  12575  has a total call value of 372,000,000  versus a total put value of  316,551,000,000 Combined total value = 316,923,000,000

Strike  12600  has a total call value of 424,500,000  versus a total put value of  305,079,000,000 Combined total value = 305,503,500,000

Strike  12625  has a total call value of 480,000,000  versus a total put value of  293,841,000,000 Combined total value = 294,321,000,000

Strike  12650  has a total call value of 535,500,000  versus a total put value of  282,621,900,000 Combined total value = 283,157,400,000

Strike  12675  has a total call value of 591,900,000  versus a total put value of  271,455,600,000 Combined total value = 272,047,500,000

Strike  12700  has a total call value of 648,300,000  versus a total put value of  260,296,500,000 Combined total value = 260,944,800,000

Strike  12725  has a total call value of 708,000,000  versus a total put value of  249,395,100,000 Combined total value = 250,103,100,000

Strike  12750  has a total call value of 767,700,000  versus a total put value of  238,503,600,000 Combined total value = 239,271,300,000

Strike  12775  has a total call value of 827,400,000  versus a total put value of  227,782,800,000 Combined total value = 228,610,200,000

Strike  12800  has a total call value of 887,100,000  versus a total put value of  217,072,200,000 Combined total value = 217,959,300,000

Strike  12825  has a total call value of 959,700,000  versus a total put value of  206,738,100,000 Combined total value = 207,697,800,000

Strike  12850  has a total call value of 1,032,300,000  versus a total put value of  196,420,800,000 Combined total value = 197,453,100,000

Strike  12875  has a total call value of 1,106,400,000  versus a total put value of  186,139,500,000 Combined total value = 187,245,900,000

Strike  12900  has a total call value of 1,182,600,000  versus a total put value of  175,871,700,000 Combined total value = 177,054,300,000

Strike  12925  has a total call value of 1,287,300,000  versus a total put value of  165,885,000,000 Combined total value = 167,172,300,000

Strike  12950  has a total call value of 1,397,400,000  versus a total put value of  155,917,800,000 Combined total value = 157,315,200,000

Strike  12975  has a total call value of 1,525,200,000  versus a total put value of  146,000,100,000 Combined total value = 147,525,300,000

Strike  13000  has a total call value of 1,663,200,000  versus a total put value of  136,108,200,000 Combined total value = 137,771,400,000

Strike  13025  has a total call value of 2,644,500,000  versus a total put value of  128,717,700,000 Combined total value = 131,362,200,000

Strike  13050  has a total call value of 3,643,500,000  versus a total put value of  121,360,500,000 Combined total value = 125,004,000,000

Strike  13075  has a total call value of 4,686,900,000  versus a total put value of  114,070,500,000 Combined total value = 118,757,400,000

Strike  13100  has a total call value of 5,748,900,000  versus a total put value of  106,820,100,000 Combined total value = 112,569,000,000

Strike  13125  has a total call value of 7,132,500,000  versus a total put value of  100,289,100,000 Combined total value = 107,421,600,000

Strike  13150  has a total call value of 8,542,800,000  versus a total put value of  93,787,200,000 Combined total value = 102,330,000,000

Strike  13175  has a total call value of 9,992,100,000  versus a total put value of  87,333,600,000 Combined total value = 97,325,700,000

Strike  13200  has a total call value of 11,461,800,000  versus a total put value of  80,908,500,000 Combined total value = 92,370,300,000

Strike  13225  has a total call value of 13,122,000,000  versus a total put value of  75,346,200,000 Combined total value = 88,468,200,000

Strike  13250  has a total call value of 14,813,700,000  versus a total put value of  69,813,600,000 Combined total value = 84,627,300,000

Strike  13275  has a total call value of 16,552,200,000  versus a total put value of  64,329,300,000 Combined total value = 80,881,500,000

Strike  13300  has a total call value of 18,317,700,000  versus a total put value of  58,882,800,000 Combined total value = 77,200,500,000

Strike  13325  has a total call value of 20,353,200,000  versus a total put value of  54,243,900,000 Combined total value = 74,597,100,000

Strike  13350  has a total call value of 22,420,500,000  versus a total put value of  49,636,800,000 Combined total value = 72,057,300,000

Strike  13375  has a total call value of 24,535,800,000  versus a total put value of  45,077,400,000 Combined total value = 69,613,200,000

Strike  13400  has a total call value of 26,673,300,000  versus a total put value of  40,545,000,000 Combined total value = 67,218,300,000

Strike  13425  has a total call value of 29,170,500,000  versus a total put value of  36,731,700,000 Combined total value = 65,902,200,000

Strike  13450  has a total call value of 31,707,900,000  versus a total put value of  32,950,800,000 Combined total value = 64,658,700,000

Strike  13475  has a total call value of 34,277,100,000  versus a total put value of  29,234,400,000 Combined total value = 63,511,500,000

Strike  13500  has a total call value of 36,862,800,000  versus a total put value of  25,540,500,000 Combined total value = 62,403,300,000

Strike  13525  has a total call value of 40,269,300,000  versus a total put value of  22,789,200,000 Combined total value = 63,058,500,000

Strike  13550  has a total call value of 43,739,700,000  versus a total put value of  20,098,500,000 Combined total value = 63,838,200,000

Strike  13575  has a total call value of 47,454,000,000  versus a total put value of  17,607,000,000 Combined total value = 65,061,000,000

Strike  13600  has a total call value of 51,281,700,000  versus a total put value of  15,233,100,000 Combined total value = 66,514,800,000

Strike  13625  has a total call value of 55,987,200,000  versus a total put value of  13,440,900,000 Combined total value = 69,428,100,000

Strike  13650  has a total call value of 60,778,800,000  versus a total put value of  11,721,900,000 Combined total value = 72,500,700,000

Strike  13675  has a total call value of 65,734,800,000  versus a total put value of  10,105,200,000 Combined total value = 75,840,000,000

Strike  13700  has a total call value of 70,777,500,000  versus a total put value of  8,563,800,000 Combined total value = 79,341,300,000

Strike  13725  has a total call value of 76,884,600,000  versus a total put value of  7,677,600,000 Combined total value = 84,562,200,000

Strike  13750  has a total call value of 83,062,800,000  versus a total put value of  6,848,100,000 Combined total value = 89,910,900,000

Strike  13775  has a total call value of 89,378,700,000  versus a total put value of  6,072,000,000 Combined total value = 95,450,700,000

Strike  13800  has a total call value of 95,741,100,000  versus a total put value of  5,306,700,000 Combined total value = 101,047,800,000

Strike  13825  has a total call value of 102,742,200,000  versus a total put value of  4,744,800,000 Combined total value = 107,487,000,000

Strike  13850  has a total call value of 109,768,200,000  versus a total put value of  4,192,500,000 Combined total value = 113,960,700,000

Strike  13875  has a total call value of 116,853,300,000  versus a total put value of  3,649,500,000 Combined total value = 120,502,800,000

Strike  13900  has a total call value of 123,959,100,000  versus a total put value of  3,110,700,000 Combined total value = 127,069,800,000

Strike  13925  has a total call value of 131,469,300,000  versus a total put value of  2,627,700,000 Combined total value = 134,097,000,000

Strike  13950  has a total call value of 139,023,300,000  versus a total put value of  2,149,200,000 Combined total value = 141,172,500,000

Strike  13975  has a total call value of 146,688,300,000  versus a total put value of  1,679,100,000 Combined total value = 148,367,400,000

Strike  14000  has a total call value of 154,388,100,000  versus a total put value of  1,210,500,000 Combined total value = 155,598,600,000

Strike  14025  has a total call value of 164,719,500,000  versus a total put value of  1,150,200,000 Combined total value = 165,869,700,000

Strike  14050  has a total call value of 175,088,700,000  versus a total put value of  1,089,900,000 Combined total value = 176,178,600,000

Strike  14075  has a total call value of 185,529,000,000  versus a total put value of  1,032,300,000 Combined total value = 186,561,300,000

Strike  14100  has a total call value of 196,016,700,000  versus a total put value of  974,700,000 Combined total value = 196,991,400,000

Strike  14125  has a total call value of 206,959,200,000  versus a total put value of  921,900,000 Combined total value = 207,881,100,000

Strike  14150  has a total call value of 217,940,100,000  versus a total put value of  869,100,000 Combined total value = 218,809,200,000

Strike  14175  has a total call value of 228,982,200,000  versus a total put value of  816,300,000 Combined total value = 229,798,500,000

Strike  14200  has a total call value of 240,060,300,000  versus a total put value of  763,500,000 Combined total value = 240,823,800,000

Strike  14225  has a total call value of 252,003,900,000  versus a total put value of  711,000,000 Combined total value = 252,714,900,000

Strike  14250  has a total call value of 263,973,000,000  versus a total put value of  658,800,000 Combined total value = 264,631,800,000

Strike  14275  has a total call value of 275,980,500,000  versus a total put value of  606,600,000 Combined total value = 276,587,100,000

Strike  14300  has a total call value of 288,001,200,000  versus a total put value of  554,400,000 Combined total value = 288,555,600,000

Strike  14325  has a total call value of 300,624,600,000  versus a total put value of  504,900,000 Combined total value = 301,129,500,000

Strike  14350  has a total call value of 313,260,300,000  versus a total put value of  455,400,000 Combined total value = 313,715,700,000

Strike  14375  has a total call value of 325,937,100,000  versus a total put value of  405,900,000 Combined total value = 326,343,000,000

Strike  14400  has a total call value of 338,643,000,000  versus a total put value of  356,400,000 Combined total value = 338,999,400,000

Strike  14425  has a total call value of 351,768,300,000  versus a total put value of  307,500,000 Combined total value = 352,075,800,000

Strike  14450  has a total call value of 364,902,900,000  versus a total put value of  258,600,000 Combined total value = 365,161,500,000

Strike  14475  has a total call value of 378,082,800,000  versus a total put value of  209,700,000 Combined total value = 378,292,500,000

Strike  14500  has a total call value of 391,283,100,000  versus a total put value of  160,800,000 Combined total value = 391,443,900,000

Strike  14525  has a total call value of 406,791,000,000  versus a total put value of  154,800,000 Combined total value = 406,945,800,000

Strike  14550  has a total call value of 422,319,300,000  versus a total put value of  148,800,000 Combined total value = 422,468,100,000

Strike  14575  has a total call value of 437,885,400,000  versus a total put value of  142,800,000 Combined total value = 438,028,200,000

Strike  14600  has a total call value of 453,464,400,000  versus a total put value of  136,800,000 Combined total value = 453,601,200,000

Strike  14625  has a total call value of 469,381,500,000  versus a total put value of  130,800,000 Combined total value = 469,512,300,000

Strike  14650  has a total call value of 485,308,200,000  versus a total put value of  124,800,000 Combined total value = 485,433,000,000

Strike  14675  has a total call value of 501,243,600,000  versus a total put value of  118,800,000 Combined total value = 501,362,400,000

Strike  14700  has a total call value of 517,183,500,000  versus a total put value of  112,800,000 Combined total value = 517,296,300,000

Strike  14725  has a total call value of 533,289,900,000  versus a total put value of  106,800,000 Combined total value = 533,396,700,000

Strike  14750  has a total call value of 549,400,200,000  versus a total put value of  100,800,000 Combined total value = 549,501,000,000

Strike  14775  has a total call value of 565,513,500,000  versus a total put value of  94,800,000 Combined total value = 565,608,300,000

Strike  14800  has a total call value of 581,629,800,000  versus a total put value of  88,800,000 Combined total value = 581,718,600,000

Strike  14825  has a total call value of 597,817,500,000  versus a total put value of  82,800,000 Combined total value = 597,900,300,000

Strike  14850  has a total call value of 614,009,700,000  versus a total put value of  76,800,000 Combined total value = 614,086,500,000

Strike  14875  has a total call value of 630,201,900,000  versus a total put value of  70,800,000 Combined total value = 630,272,700,000

Strike  14900  has a total call value of 646,394,100,000  versus a total put value of  64,800,000 Combined total value = 646,458,900,000

Strike  14925  has a total call value of 662,624,700,000  versus a total put value of  58,800,000 Combined total value = 662,683,500,000

Strike  14950  has a total call value of 678,855,300,000  versus a total put value of  52,800,000 Combined total value = 678,908,100,000

Strike  14975  has a total call value of 695,085,900,000  versus a total put value of  46,800,000 Combined total value = 695,132,700,000

Strike  15000  has a total call value of 711,316,500,000  versus a total put value of  40,800,000 Combined total value = 711,357,300,000

Strike  15025  has a total call value of 728,501,400,000  versus a total put value of  37,800,000 Combined total value = 728,539,200,000

Strike  15050  has a total call value of 745,686,300,000  versus a total put value of  34,800,000 Combined total value = 745,721,100,000

Strike  15075  has a total call value of 762,871,200,000  versus a total put value of  31,800,000 Combined total value = 762,903,000,000

Strike  15100  has a total call value of 780,056,100,000  versus a total put value of  28,800,000 Combined total value = 780,084,900,000

Strike  15125  has a total call value of 797,249,100,000  versus a total put value of  25,800,000 Combined total value = 797,274,900,000

Strike  15150  has a total call value of 814,442,100,000  versus a total put value of  22,800,000 Combined total value = 814,464,900,000

Strike  15175  has a total call value of 831,635,100,000  versus a total put value of  19,800,000 Combined total value = 831,654,900,000

Strike  15200  has a total call value of 848,828,100,000  versus a total put value of  16,800,000 Combined total value = 848,844,900,000

Strike  15225  has a total call value of 866,062,500,000  versus a total put value of  15,600,000 Combined total value = 866,078,100,000

Strike  15250  has a total call value of 883,296,900,000  versus a total put value of  14,400,000 Combined total value = 883,311,300,000

Strike  15275  has a total call value of 900,531,300,000  versus a total put value of  13,200,000 Combined total value = 900,544,500,000

Strike  15300  has a total call value of 917,765,700,000  versus a total put value of  12,000,000 Combined total value = 917,777,700,000

Strike  15325  has a total call value of 935,026,500,000  versus a total put value of  10,800,000 Combined total value = 935,037,300,000

Strike  15350  has a total call value of 952,287,300,000  versus a total put value of  9,600,000 Combined total value = 952,296,900,000

Strike  15375  has a total call value of 969,548,100,000  versus a total put value of  8,400,000 Combined total value = 969,556,500,000

Strike  15400  has a total call value of 986,808,900,000  versus a total put value of  7,200,000 Combined total value = 986,816,100,000

Strike  15425  has a total call value of 1,004,088,900,000  versus a total put value of  6,000,000 Combined total value = 1,004,094,900,000

Strike  15450  has a total call value of 1,021,368,900,000  versus a total put value of  4,800,000 Combined total value = 1,021,373,700,000

Strike  15475  has a total call value of 1,038,648,900,000  versus a total put value of  3,600,000 Combined total value = 1,038,652,500,000

Strike  15500  has a total call value of 1,055,928,900,000  versus a total put value of  2,400,000 Combined total value = 1,055,931,300,000

Strike  15525  has a total call value of 1,073,469,900,000  versus a total put value of  1,800,000 Combined total value = 1,073,471,700,000

Strike  15550  has a total call value of 1,091,010,900,000  versus a total put value of  1,200,000 Combined total value = 1,091,012,100,000

Strike  15575  has a total call value of 1,108,551,900,000  versus a total put value of  600,000 Combined total value = 1,108,552,500,000

Strike  15600  has a total call value of 1,126,092,900,000  versus a total put value of  0 Combined total value = 1,126,092,900,000

Max-Pain Table for Index
LTP > Max Pain Bearish
LTP < Max Pain Bullish
Frequently Asked Questions

Max Pain, also known as the max pain price, is the strike price at which the maximum number of option contracts (both puts and calls) would expire worthless, causing the largest financial losses for option holders at expiration. This price point represents the level where option writers would experience the least payout obligation.

The max pain theory suggests that as expiration approaches, market makers and option writers may attempt to influence the stock price toward this level to minimize their payout obligations, making it a significant reference point for traders analyzing option expiration dynamics.

Max Pain is calculated by determining the total dollar value of in-the-money options at each strike price. Here's the step-by-step process:

  1. For each strike price: Calculate the difference between the current stock price and the strike price.
  2. Multiply by Open Interest: Multiply this difference by the open interest (number of contracts) at that strike for both call and put options.
  3. Sum the values: Add together the dollar value for put options and call options at each strike price.
  4. Repeat for all strikes: Perform this calculation for every available strike price in the option chain.
  5. Identify the maximum: The strike price with the highest combined dollar value is the Max Pain price.

This calculation helps identify the price level where option writers would face the maximum financial loss if the stock closes at that price on expiration day.

Traders can incorporate Max Pain analysis into their trading strategy in several ways:

  • Expiration Day Trading: As option expiration approaches, traders can use Max Pain as a potential support or resistance level, as market makers may attempt to push the price toward this level.
  • Option Selection: Understanding Max Pain helps traders choose strike prices that are less likely to be manipulated, potentially improving their option trade outcomes.
  • Risk Management: If a stock is trading far from Max Pain before expiration, traders can anticipate potential price movement toward this level and adjust their positions accordingly.
  • Market Sentiment Indicator: Comparing the current stock price to Max Pain can provide insights into market sentiment and potential price direction near expiration.
  • Hedging Strategy: Option writers can use Max Pain to identify strike prices where they might face the least payout risk, helping them structure more efficient hedging strategies.

Max Pain provides insights into potential stock price behavior, especially near option expiration:

  • Price Magnet Effect: If the stock price is significantly above or below Max Pain before expiration, there may be a tendency for the price to move toward Max Pain as expiration approaches, as option writers hedge their positions.
  • Support/Resistance Level: Max Pain can act as a psychological and technical support or resistance level, especially on expiration day, as it represents the price where maximum option value would be lost.
  • Volatility Indicator: A large gap between current price and Max Pain may indicate higher potential volatility or price movement as expiration nears.
  • Market Maker Activity: Significant open interest concentration around Max Pain suggests where market makers might have the most incentive to influence price movement through their hedging activities.

Note: Max Pain is a theoretical concept and should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools, as it does not guarantee price movement.

Max Pain is a dynamic value that changes continuously based on several factors:

  • Open Interest Changes: As traders open and close option positions, the open interest at different strike prices changes, which directly affects the Max Pain calculation.
  • Stock Price Movement: As the underlying stock price moves, different strike prices become in-the-money or out-of-the-money, altering the dollar value calculations.
  • Time Decay: As expiration approaches, the time value of options decreases, but the intrinsic value calculations for Max Pain continue to evolve with price movements.
  • New Option Contracts: When new strike prices are added or when significant new positions are opened, Max Pain may shift to reflect the new distribution of open interest.

For accurate Max Pain analysis, traders should monitor it regularly, especially in the days leading up to expiration, as it can shift significantly as market conditions and option positions change.

Max Pain and Spot Price are two distinct concepts that serve different purposes in options trading:

  • Spot Price (Current Market Price): This is the current trading price of the underlying stock or index in the market. It represents the real-time value at which the asset can be bought or sold immediately.
  • Max Pain Price: This is a calculated theoretical price level based on option open interest data. It represents the strike price where option writers would face minimum payout obligations, not necessarily where the stock is currently trading.

The relationship between these two prices is crucial: when the spot price is far from Max Pain, traders may anticipate potential price movement toward Max Pain as expiration approaches. However, this is not guaranteed, and many other factors influence stock price movement.

No, Max Pain is not always accurate and should not be used as the sole indicator for predicting stock price movement. Here's why:

  • Market Forces: Strong fundamental news, earnings reports, or significant market events can override the Max Pain effect and drive prices in unexpected directions.
  • Institutional Activity: Large institutional trades, algorithmic trading, and other market participants may have different objectives than minimizing option payouts.
  • Limited Influence: While market makers may attempt to influence price toward Max Pain, their ability to do so is limited, especially in highly liquid stocks with strong directional momentum.
  • Multiple Expirations: Stocks often have options expiring on different dates (weekly, monthly), which means multiple Max Pain levels may exist simultaneously, reducing the predictive power of any single level.
  • Statistical Tool: Max Pain is best viewed as a statistical tool that provides context about option market dynamics rather than a guaranteed price target.

Traders should use Max Pain as one of many tools in their analysis, combining it with technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and market sentiment indicators for more comprehensive decision-making.

Max Pain becomes increasingly relevant as option expiration approaches:

  • Last Trading Week: Max Pain analysis is most useful during the final week before expiration, when option writers are actively hedging and the "pinning effect" (price movement toward Max Pain) is most likely to occur.
  • Expiration Day: On the day of expiration, Max Pain can serve as a key reference level, as market makers may attempt to keep the stock price near this level to minimize their payout obligations.
  • High Open Interest: Max Pain is more reliable when there is significant open interest concentrated around specific strike prices, as this indicates where option writers have the most exposure.
  • Low Volatility Periods: During periods of low market volatility, Max Pain may have a stronger influence, as there are fewer competing forces driving price movement.
  • Monthly Expirations: Monthly option expirations (typically the third Friday) often show stronger Max Pain effects compared to weekly expirations, due to higher open interest and more significant market maker involvement.

While Max Pain can be calculated at any time, its predictive value and practical application increase significantly as expiration approaches, making it particularly useful for short-term trading strategies focused on expiration week dynamics.